Three inputs directly affect your valuation multiples and discount rate. Each is shown below with its current status and exact impact on your result.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Briggs Mechanical Services LLC, an established HVAC business in Texas, is valued between $1,110,796 and $1,568,183. This valuation is derived from a triangulation of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), market multiples, and asset-based approaches. The business's strong revenue growth and profitability are tempered by significant key person dependency and moderate customer concentration, positioning it within this range.
BUSINESS PROFILE & FINANCIAL HEALTH Briggs Mechanical Services LLC has demonstrated a solid financial performance with a revenue-to-expense ratio that supports a 20.0% profitability margin. The Seller's Discretionary Earnings (SDE) margin stands at 25.9%, indicating efficient operations compared to industry norms. The business's consistent revenue growth of 6.9% CAGR over three years reflects a healthy upward trend, although it falls short of industry top-quartile growth targets.
VALUATION METHOD 1 — DCF ANALYSIS The DCF analysis values the business at $2,020,378, based on a 6.0% growth rate derived from a blend of historical revenue CAGR and industry base rates. The discount rate of 20.4% incorporates specific risk factors, including a 5.0% key man risk and a 1.0% customer concentration risk, offset by a 0.7% reduction for recurring revenue. The present value of the terminal value is $941,951, reflecting future cash flow expectations.
VALUATION METHOD 2 — MARKET MULTIPLES The market multiples approach yields a value range of $559,800 to $1,088,500, based on a risk-adjusted SDE multiple range of 1.8x to 3.5x. These multiples account for the business's revenue growth, key person risk, customer concentration, and recurring revenue, aligning with industry norms for similar HVAC businesses.
VALUATION METHOD 3 — ASSET-BASED The asset-based valuation of $852,000 includes tangible assets valued at $230,000 and goodwill calculated at $622,000 (2.0x SDE). This method highlights the business's tangible asset base and the intrinsic value of its established market presence and customer relationships.
INDUSTRY BENCHMARKS & COMPARISON Briggs Mechanical Services LLC's current growth rate of 6.9% and recurring revenue of 35.0% are below the HVAC industry's top-quartile targets of 12% growth and 50% recurring revenue. Key industry risks include labor shortages and technician retention, while value drivers such as maintenance agreements and commercial contracts offer growth potential. The business's established history and location in Texas provide a strong foundation for future expansion.
GROWTH SCENARIOS The DCF scenario values for Briggs Mechanical Services LLC are $1,949,151 at the industry median growth of 5.0%, $2,208,752 for an above-median trajectory of 8.5%, and $2,498,748 for achieving the top-quartile 12.0% growth target. To reach the top-quartile scenario, the owner must focus on increasing recurring revenue and expanding service agreements.
STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS
| Period | Projected SDE (owner cash flow) | Growth Rate | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $329,660 | 6.0% | $273,804 |
| Year 2 | $349,440 | 6.0% | $241,057 |
| Year 3 | $370,406 | 6.0% | $212,226 |
| Year 4 | $392,630 | 6.0% | $186,843 |
| Year 5 | $416,188 | 6.0% | $164,497 |
| Terminal Value (PV) | Gordon Growth Model @ 2.5% terminal growth | $941,951 | |
| Total DCF Value | $2,020,378 | ||
Growth rate: 6.0% | Discount rate: 20.4% (build-up method) | Projected cash flow is SDE — the pre-tax owner benefit (not capex/tax-adjusted free cash flow); see appendix section 3 for the full convention. Terminal value is 47% of the DCF total.
| Multiple Basis | Range | This Business | Value Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Multiple | 0.29x – 0.56x | $1,200,000 | $348,000 – $672,000 |
| SDE Multiple (Primary) | 1.8x – 3.5x | $311,000 | $559,800 – $1,088,500 |
Industry: HVAC | Multiples shown are the final risk-adjusted ranges (full adjustment path in appendix section 4)
| # | Action | Est. Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reduce key person dependency to Low | +$463,665 |
| 2 | Reach top-quartile HVAC growth (12%) | +$191,348 |
| 3 | Diversify customer base (no single customer >10%, top 3 <30%) | +$70,308 |
| 4 | Reach top-quartile HVAC recurring revenue (50%) | +$42,191 |
| Annual Revenue | $1,200,000 |
| Total Business Expenses | − $960,000 |
| Net Profit | $240,000 |
| Owner draws/distributions — informational: not added back (draws are not a deductible expense for this entity type, so net profit above already includes this money) | $140,000 |
| Reported SDE (net profit — owner pay was not a deducted expense, so there is nothing to add back) | $240,000 |
| Recurring Add-Backs (apply to all years) | |
| Owner's health insurance through business | + $14,000 |
| Owner's retirement contributions | + $18,000 |
| Personal vehicle expenses | + $9,000 |
| Personal phone/travel/meals/entertainment | + $6,000 |
| Rent Normalization (apply to all years) | |
| Above-market rent — add back excess (actual $66,000 vs. market $42,000) | + $24,000 |
| Normalized SDE (used for valuation) | $311,000 |
| 2 years ago — Normalized SDE | $261,000 |
| 1 year ago — Normalized SDE | $286,000 |
| Current year — Recurring SDE (excludes one-time add-backs) | $311,000 |
| Earnings consistency (coefficient of variation) | 7.1% — stable |
| Risk-free rate (10-yr U.S. Treasury — FRED series DGS10) | 4.55% |
| Equity risk premium | 5.50% |
| Small company premium | 5.00% |
| ▲ Key person dependency risk (High) | +5.00% |
| ▲ Customer concentration risk (Moderate — top 16%, top 3 32%) | +1.00% |
| ● Recurring revenue reduces risk (35% recurring) | −0.70% |
| Total Discount Rate | 20.4% |
| Period | Projected SDE (owner cash flow) | Present Value |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $329,660 | $273,804 |
| Year 2 | $349,440 | $241,057 |
| Year 3 | $370,406 | $212,226 |
| Year 4 | $392,630 | $186,843 |
| Year 5 | $416,188 | $164,497 |
| Terminal Value (PV) | — | $941,951 |
| DCF Value | $2,020,378 | |
| Industry baseline SDE multiple range | 2.0x – 4.5x |
| Industry baseline revenue multiple range (cross-check basis) | 0.30x – 0.70x |
| Revenue trend adjustment (additive) — +0.17x (2.5 × 6.9% CAGR, capped ±0.5x) | → 2.2x – 4.7x |
| Key person risk adjustment (multiplicative) — ×0.70 (−30%) | → 1.5x – 3.3x |
| Customer concentration adjustment (multiplicative) — ×0.934 (−6.6%) | → 1.4x – 3.1x |
| Recurring revenue premium (additive) — +0.42x (additive) | → 1.8x – 3.5x |
| Final adjusted SDE multiple range | 1.8x – 3.5x |
| SDE-based value range (final SDE multiple × $311,000) | $559,800 – $1,088,500 |
| Revenue-based cross-check (final revenue multiple 0.29x–0.56x × $1,200,000) | $348,000 – $672,000 |
| Market Multiples Value (SDE-based, primary) | $559,800 – $1,088,500 |
| Equipment value | $185,000 |
| Inventory value | $45,000 |
| Goodwill estimate (2x SDE) | $622,000 |
| Real estate — excluded, sold separately (figure estimated at 60% of annual revenue — no property value provided) | $720,000 |
| Asset & Goodwill Value | $852,000 |
| DCF value | 40% weight | $2,020,378 |
| Market multiples midpoint | 45% weight | $824,150 |
| Asset & goodwill value | 15% weight | $852,000 |
| Triangulated Value | $1,306,819 | |
| Factor | Effect on market multiples | Effect on DCF discount rate |
|---|---|---|
| Key person dependency | Low ×1.00 · Moderate ×0.85 (−15%) · High ×0.70 (−30%) | Low +0 · Moderate +3.0 pts · High +5.0 pts |
| Customer concentration (continuous curve on top-1 and top-3 %) |
0% discount when fully diversified, ramping to −3% at top customer = 10%; −3% to −15% as top-1 runs 10→30% or top-3 runs 30→50% (larger of the two governs); −15% and steepening beyond; capped at −30% | Same curve shape at smaller magnitude: +0.5 pt at top-1 = 10%, +2.0 pts at 30%, capped at +5.0 pts; the computed premium is rounded to the nearest 0.1 pt before entering the build-up |
| Recurring revenue | +1.20x × recurring fraction on SDE multiples (50% recurring → +0.60x), capped +1.20x; revenue multiples +0.20x × fraction, capped +0.20x | −2.0 pts × recurring fraction (10% recurring → −0.2 pt), capped −2.0 pts |
| Revenue trend (CAGR) | ±2.5 × CAGR on SDE multiples (e.g. +10% CAGR → +0.25x), capped ±0.5x; revenue multiples ±0.75 × CAGR, capped ±0.15x | — (trend affects the DCF via the growth rate instead) |
| Business tenure | — (tenure scales the goodwill estimate: ×0.6 at 2–4 years, ×0.2 under 2 years) | +3.0 pts under 3 years · +1.5 pts under 5 years · +0 at 5+ |
| Earnings volatility | — | CV ≤ 10%: none · above 10%: +0.1 pt per CV point, capped +2.0 pts |
| Industry risk | — (already embedded in the industry baseline multiples) | +2.0 pts where the industry baseline SDE multiple floor is under 2.0x (higher-risk industries) · −1.0 pt where it exceeds 3.0x · bounded −2/+4 pts |
| Assumption | Base Case | Value-Lowering Case | Value-Raising Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 6.0% | 3.0% | 9.0% |
| Discount rate | 20.4% | 22.4% (higher rate = lower value) | 18.4% |
| Market multiples | Risk-adjusted base | −5% contraction | +5% expansion |
| Discount rate | DCF value | Triangulated value |
| 2 points lower (18.4%) | $2,282,597 | $1,411,706 |
| Base rate (20.4%) | $2,020,378 | $1,306,819 |
| 2 points higher (22.4%) | $1,811,267 | $1,223,174 |
| Business Overview | |
| Business name | Briggs Mechanical Services LLC |
| Industry | HVAC |
| State / location | TX |
| Years in business | 14 years |
| Number of employees | 8 |
| Business structure / entity type | Sole Proprietor / Single-member LLC |
| Financials | |
| Annual revenue | $1,200,000 |
| Annual expenses | $960,000 |
| Net profit | $240,000 |
| Owner compensation (salary / draws / guaranteed payments) | $140,000 — not a deducted expense; informational, not added back |
| Owner add-backs (sum of recurring + one-time) | $47,000 |
| Rent normalization adjustment | +$24,000 |
| Normalized SDE (used for valuation) | $311,000 |
| Revenue history (2yr ago → 1yr ago → current) | $1,050,000 → $1,135,000 → $1,200,000 |
| Revenue CAGR (calculated) | +6.9% |
| Net profit history (2yr ago → 1yr ago) | $190,000 → $215,000 |
| Earnings volatility (CV) | 7.1% (stable) |
| Risk Factors | |
| Key person dependency | High — the business is largely me |
| Customer concentration | top customer 16% of revenue; top 3 32% |
| Recurring revenue | 35.0% of revenue |
| Assets & Property | |
| Location ownership | Owns building |
| Current annual rent paid | $66,000 |
| Estimated market annual rent | $42,000 |
| Rent paid to related entity | Yes (LLC controlled by owner) |
| Equipment value | $185,000 |
| Inventory value | $45,000 |
| Owns real estate | Yes (selling separately) |
| Intellectual property | No |
| Valuation Parameters | |
| Risk-free rate used | 4.55% (10-yr U.S. Treasury — FRED DGS10, fetched at generation) |
| Discount rate (calculated) | 20.4% |
| Report generated | August 10, 2026 |
This report is generated for informational and planning purposes only and does not constitute a formal business appraisal, financial advice, legal opinion, or tax advice. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any business interest, security, insurance product, or other financial instrument. Valuations are based on the financial data provided by the submitter and publicly available industry benchmarks. Actual market value may vary based on due diligence findings, current market conditions, buyer/seller motivations, and factors not disclosed in this analysis. For any transaction, partnership dispute, tax filing, litigation, regulatory matter, or other situation requiring a defensible valuation, engage a credentialed business appraiser (ABV, ASA, CVA, or equivalent) or qualified attorney.